Bacon Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Bacon prices in May 2025 reached $6.985 per pound, showing a slight monthly decline of 0.3% from April but maintaining significant year-over-year growth of 2.4%. Despite the monthly dip, bacon prices remain elevated due to structural market pressures including global demand, regulatory changes, and supply chain challenges.
Current Price Trends
May 2025 Performance
- Current Price: $6.985 per pound in May 2025
- Monthly Change: -0.3% decrease from April 2025 ($7.009)
- Annual Growth: +2.4% increase from May 2024 ($6.818)
- 6-Month Trend: +2.1% increase since November 2024
Recent Market Dynamics
Pork bacon prices in May were up 5.7% from April and 18% from May 2024, according to an analysis of grocery price data from NIQ, though this conflicts with BLS data showing a monthly decline. The discrepancy suggests varying measurement methodologies between retail checkout data and government statistics.
Key Factors Driving Prices
Global Demand Pressures
One significant factor behind soaring bacon costs is the high global demand for pork, especially from markets like China. The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China decimated their domestic pork production, resulting in increased imports from countries like the U.S. to meet the demand.
Regulatory Impact
California's Proposition 12, which went into effect in 2022 and mandates minimum living requirements for farm animals, also increased pork, and thus bacon, prices. This regulation continues to create structural cost increases across the industry.
Economic Factors
"With tariffs, wages going up, product supply and demand, the cost to produce a pig … everything combines into that inflation for bacon", according to industry expert Jim Eadie.
Historical Context
Long-term Price Evolution
The data reveals significant price volatility over recent years:
| Period | Price Range | Notable Events |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-2022 | $5.83-$7.61 | Pandemic supply disruptions, peak inflation |
| 2023 | $6.22-$7.22 | Post-pandemic adjustment, volatile swings |
| 2024 | $6.50-$7.04 | Stabilization with continued elevation |
| 2025 YTD | $6.80-$7.04 | Modest fluctuations around $7 level |
Peak Analysis
- Historical Peak: $7.608 in October 2022
- Recent High: $7.044 in January 2025
- Current Level: 8.4% below historical peak but 26.8% above 2020 average
Market Outlook
Expert Predictions
Jim Eadie, the founder and publisher of the pork industry publication Swineweb.com, said it's possible that bacon's new, higher costs are here to stay. Bacon prices are going up, and experts say these prices may not be coming down, driven by a confluence of economic factors.
Supply Chain Considerations
Pork producers have been grappling with disruptions brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Labor shortages, rising feed costs, and transportation issues have all contributed to increased operational expenses.
Regional Variations
NIQ's data, collected from real checkout prices paid at stores across the country, shows that prices for a pound of bacon range significantly depending on where you live, from $4.03 in Dallas to more than $7.00 in Los Angeles.
Comparative Analysis
Inflation Context
The per-pound cost of bacon was $6.78 in 2024 compared to $6.65 in 2023, marking a year-over-year increase of 1.8%. The current May 2025 price of $6.985 represents continued upward pressure despite monthly volatility.
Consumer Impact
The average American consumes 18 pounds of bacon annually, meaning the current price level translates to approximately $125.73 in annual bacon costs per person, compared to $104.76 in 2020.
Conclusion
Bacon prices in May 2025 reflect a market in transition, with short-term monthly declines masking persistent structural pressures. The combination of global demand, regulatory compliance costs, and ongoing supply chain challenges suggests that elevated pricing levels are likely to persist. While the 0.3% monthly decline provides some consumer relief, the 2.4% annual increase and expert predictions indicate that bacon prices will remain significantly above historical norms for the foreseeable future.