Bananas Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Key Findings:
- Banana prices reached $0.655 per pound in May 2025, representing a 5.3% increase over the past 12 months
- Prices have shown consistent upward momentum with a 3.1% monthly increase from April to May 2025
- Climate change poses severe long-term threats, with 60% of banana-growing regions in Latin America and the Caribbean at risk by 2080
- Multiple factors driving price increases include Fusarium Wilt TR4 disease, climate-related challenges, and rising production costs
The era of super-cheap bananas appears to be ending as climate change and disease pressures reshape the global banana industry.
Recent Price Trends
Current Market Position
The latest BLS data shows banana prices at $0.655 per pound in May 2025, marking the highest price point in recent years. This represents:
- Monthly growth: 3.1% increase from April ($0.635)
- Quarterly growth: 5.8% increase from February ($0.619)
- Annual growth: 5.3% increase from May 2024 ($0.622)
Historical Context
Comparing current prices to historical data reveals significant patterns:
| Period | Price | 12-Month Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | $0.655 | +5.3% |
| May 2024 | $0.622 | -1.0% |
| May 2023 | $0.628 | -2.2% |
| May 2022 | $0.642 | +7.0% |
The current price level represents a recovery from the 2023-2024 lows and approaches the elevated prices seen during the 2022 inflationary period.
Key Factors Driving Price Increases
Climate Change Impact
New research warns that climate change will make banana farming economically unsustainable in many areas, with 60% of current banana-growing regions expected to struggle by 2080. Bananas require temperatures between 15-35°C to thrive but are highly sensitive to water shortages.
La Niña weather patterns and unusually cold temperatures have severely disrupted banana production in Central America, with supplies from Costa Rica, Colombia, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Ecuador all lower in 2025.
Disease Pressures
The spread of Fusarium Wilt TR4 poses a significant threat to global banana crops, with this fungal infection causing the loss of entire plantations. Black Leaf Fungus can reduce banana plants' photosynthesis ability by up to 80%, while Panama disease spreads through contaminated soil.
Production Cost Increases
The industry faces higher costs due to rising prices of fertilizers, energy, and labor, along with worker shortages. Experts predict banana prices will remain elevated amid increasing production costs and labor shortages.
Regional Impact Analysis
Latin America & Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean currently export around 80% of bananas globally, but 60% of the region's most suitable growing areas could be lost by 2080. Countries like Colombia and Costa Rica will be most negatively impacted, while Ecuador and parts of Brazil may remain viable producers.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Recent storms at sea led to shortages in UK supermarkets, underscoring supply chain vulnerabilities. While U.S. retail prices haven't risen yet, industry experts point to increased production costs creating pressure throughout the supply chain.
Market Outlook
Short-term Projections
With rising temperatures and difficult growing conditions, banana yields are likely to decline further, suggesting prices will continue upward in coming months. Industry signals indicate the era of super-cheap bananas is coming to an end.
Long-term Concerns
Bananas represent an $11 billion annual export industry crucial for many countries' economies. More than 400 million people rely on bananas for 15-27% of their daily calories, making this crop vital for global food security.
Industry Response
Adaptation Strategies
Companies are adapting by diversifying sourcing locations and investing in disease-resistant crop varieties and improved agricultural practices. Scientists emphasize the need for substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties.
Sustainability Focus
The industry is focusing on sustainability concerns, emphasizing greener production methods and rigorous certification processes to meet consumer demand for ethically sourced bananas. Consumers are being urged to choose Fairtrade produce to ensure greater payments to farmers.
Conclusion
The 5.3% annual price increase to $0.655 per pound reflects fundamental shifts in the global banana industry. Climate change, disease pressures, and rising production costs are converging to create sustained upward pressure on prices. As researchers warn, climate change represents "a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods," affecting not only consumers but millions of workers in producing countries.
The current price trajectory suggests consumers should expect continued increases as the industry grapples with these unprecedented challenges while working toward more sustainable and resilient production systems.