Cheese Price Analysis - April 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Cheese prices in April 2025 reached $5.743 per pound, showing a 4.2% annual increase despite recent volatility. The market demonstrates resilience amid ongoing supply challenges and strong global demand.
- Current Price: $5.743 per pound (April 2025)
- Annual Growth: +4.2% year-over-year
- Recent Trend: Modest monthly increase of 0.1% from March
- Market Context: Prices remain elevated but below 2022-2023 peaks
Recent Price Trends
Short-Term Movement (1-6 Months)
The cheese market has shown mixed volatility in recent months:
- April 2025: $5.743 (+0.1% monthly)
- March 2025: $5.737 (+3.6% monthly surge)
- February 2025: $5.536 (-2.8% monthly decline)
- January 2025: $5.698 (+1.4% monthly)
The 6-month trend shows a decline of -1.7%, indicating some price normalization from earlier highs.
Annual Performance
Cheese prices in 2024 averaged significantly higher than 2023, when cheddar cheese averaged just $1.76 per lb, representing price increases of 7% for cheese in 2024. The current April 2025 price of $5.743 represents a 4.2% increase from April 2024's $5.510.
Key Market Factors
Supply-Side Challenges
Disease Outbreaks Impact Production
Dairy herds in California and several other states have been hit with avian influenza throughout 2024, with HPAI confirmed in cattle in 16 states. Bird flu has had a slight impact on milk production weakness. Cattle in Western Europe recently have been affected by outbreaks of bluetongue and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease.
Production Constraints
U.S. milk supply response has been dampened by a couple of factors, including Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and tight heifer supplies. In September cheese prices notched a five-year high on the CME Group, with cheddar barrels at one point trading near $2.60 per lb, up more than $1 from the same time a year ago.
Demand Drivers
Global Market Expansion
The adoption of Westernized dietary staples like pizza and bubble tea is pumping up dairy demand globally, especially in Asia. Per capita consumption in Asia is still exceptionally low, so they have a long way to go to think about matching or even halving the cheese consumption in the United States.
Domestic Consumption Patterns
After setting an all-time record in 2022, cheese consumption edged up again in 2023. Americans ate about 42.3lb (19.1kg) of cheese per capita. The higher prices for cheese and butter come at a time when Americans increasingly are eating, rather than drinking, their dairy.
Market Outlook and Projections
Near-Term Forecast (2025)
USDA projected the 2025 US cheddar cheese price at $1.88 per lb, down 6¢, or 3.1%, from the previous month's forecast, and down 1¢, or 0.1%, from 2024. However, prices should keep cheese on the high side entering 2025, with manufacturers and consumers sharing the costs.
Supply Recovery Expected
Higher values for butterfat ingredients incentivizing dairy farms to raise production, in turn easing prices in the second half of 2025. RaboResearch projected a recovery of supplies in 2025 as the world's top dairy producers show at least marginal production gains as they adapt to current market conditions.
Policy and Regulatory Factors
Federal Milk Marketing Order Updates
Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) modernization is being voted on, with changes to be implemented during 2025. Key modifications include increasing make allowances and increasing Class I price differentials across the country.
Trade Policy Uncertainties
The incoming presidential administration presents unknowns related to tariffs and immigration. Mexico and China are the most important destinations for U.S. dairy exports, and both have been subjects of recent tariff threats.
Historical Context
Price Volatility Patterns
The data reveals significant price volatility over recent years:
| Period | Price Range | Key Events |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Peak | $6.084 (Sept) | Supply chain disruptions, high inflation |
| 2023 Decline | $5.681-$5.946 | Market normalization |
| 2024 Recovery | $5.510-$5.844 | Disease outbreaks, supply constraints |
| 2025 Current | $5.536-$5.743 | Stabilization with modest growth |
Long-Term Growth Trajectory
United States cheese market, valued at US$ 39.51 billion in 2024, is expected to rise above US$ 53.66 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.46% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is driven by increasing demand for premium, organic, and specialty cheeses.
Conclusion
The April 2025 cheese price of $5.743 per pound reflects a market in transition, balancing supply constraints from disease outbreaks against strong domestic and global demand. While prices remain elevated compared to historical averages, the 4.2% annual increase suggests more moderate inflation compared to the dramatic spikes seen in 2022-2023.
Market Outlook: Expect continued price stability through mid-2025, with potential easing in the second half as production capacity recovers and global supply chains normalize.
The cheese market's resilience demonstrates the fundamental strength of dairy demand, supported by evolving consumer preferences toward specialty products and sustained global appetite for American dairy exports.