Chicken Price Analysis - November 2025

Summary

Chicken prices in November 2025 showed a 1.5% decline from the previous year, reaching $2.044 per pound, despite ongoing avian flu outbreaks affecting the broader poultry industry. This price stability contrasts sharply with the dramatic egg price increases occurring simultaneously, highlighting the distinct nature of broiler chicken versus egg-laying operations.

Key Finding: While egg prices have surged due to bird flu, chicken meat prices have remained relatively stable due to fundamental differences in production cycles and geographic distribution.

Current Price Trends

November 2025 Performance

• Current Price: $2.044 per pound
• 12-month change: -1.5% (-$0.032)
• 6-month change: -0.8% (-$0.017)
• 3-month change: -1.5% (-$0.032)

Recent Price Movement

The data shows chicken prices have been relatively volatile throughout 2025:

• Peak: $2.086 in June 2025
• Recent decline: From $2.076 in August to $2.044 in November
• Year-over-year comparison: Down from $2.076 in November 2024

Impact of Avian Flu Crisis

Limited Impact on Chicken Meat Prices

Despite the ongoing bird flu crisis, less than 0.0005% of all broiler production in the U.S. was impacted by bird flu between February 2022 and January 2025. This explains why chicken prices have remained stable while egg prices have skyrocketed.

Key Differences Between Broiler and Layer Operations

The hens that lay eggs are not the same as the chickens raised for consumption. Broiler chickens, raised for meat, are completely different from layer hens raised to lay eggs, according to industry experts.

Production Cycle Advantages for Broilers:

• Broilers are typically slaughtered within two months, whereas egg-layers take longer to mature and only start producing after four to five months. Once those hens start laying eggs, the cycle can last over a year
• Less time on the farm means broilers have less of an opportunity to be exposed to the virus

Geographic Protection

Broilers are primarily produced in the Southeast, which hasn't been as affected by the recent outbreak compared to major egg-producing states like Iowa and Ohio.

External Factors Affecting Prices

Avian Flu Outbreak Severity

Since January 2024, over 157,000,000 chickens have been affected by avian influenza, yet this has primarily impacted egg-laying operations rather than meat production.

New Virus Strain

The increase came after a new version of the virus emerged in wild migratory birds in September 2024 and then jumped to domesticated fowl. "The main issue has been the emergence of a new genotype, the D1.1", according to avian influenza experts.

Housing and Operational Differences

When a test comes back positive for bird flu, the whole flock gets culled to help prevent the spread of the virus, and egg-laying chickens are typically housed in larger flocks. For commercial operations, egg-laying barns can contain hundreds of thousands of chickens on multiple layers, whereas broiler houses, on average, hold about 25,000 birds on one level.

Market Outlook and Projections

Price Stability Expected

The price of chicken meat has hardly budged, up less than 1 percent from a year ago, indicating continued stability in the broiler market despite broader poultry industry challenges.

Potential Risk Factors

• Feed costs: If feed costs increase due to disruptions in the supply of grains used for animal feed, this could lead to price increases for other animal products like beef and pork
• Supply chain disruptions: If outbreaks force farmers to cull large numbers of birds to prevent the spread of the virus, supply chains could be disrupted, leading to shortages and higher prices for consumers

Recovery Potential

The shorter life cycle also means that when a broiler flock is lost, it can be replaced faster, providing resilience against potential future outbreaks.

Historical Context

Long-term Price Trends

Looking at the historical data, chicken prices have shown:

• 2022-2023: Significant volatility during initial bird flu outbreaks
• 2024: Gradual stabilization around $1.95-$2.08 range
• 2025: Continued stability with minor fluctuations

Comparison to Other Protein Sources

While chicken prices have remained stable, the outbreak has led to a sharp increase in chicken prices in Mexico, with prices rising as much as 43% in some areas over the past year. The average price per kilo of a whole chicken in a public market rose from 52.60 pesos (US $2.57) in February 2024 to 75.20 pesos (US $3.57) in February 2025, highlighting the international impact of U.S. production disruptions.

Conclusion

The November 2025 chicken price data reveals a market that has remained remarkably resilient despite the ongoing avian flu crisis. The 1.5% year-over-year decline to $2.044 per pound demonstrates the fundamental differences between broiler and egg-laying operations. While egg prices have experienced historic increases, chicken meat prices have benefited from shorter production cycles, geographic separation from heavily affected regions, and different housing systems that limit virus exposure and spread.