Chicken Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Chicken prices in May 2025 reached $2.061 per pound, showing modest growth of 2.4% year-over-year despite significant avian flu outbreaks affecting the poultry industry. While egg prices have soared due to bird flu, chicken meat prices have remained relatively stable due to fundamental differences in production systems.
Current Price Trends
May 2025 Price: $2.061 per pound
- Monthly change: +0.1% (+$0.002)
- 3-month change: +0.5% (+$0.010)
- 6-month change: -0.7% (-$0.015)
- Annual change: +2.4% (+$0.048)
Historical Context
The current price of $2.061 represents a return to levels seen in January 2025 and December 2024. After experiencing volatility throughout 2024, chicken prices have shown relative stability in early 2025:
| Period | Price | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | $2.061 | +0.1% |
| April 2025 | $2.059 | -0.2% |
| March 2025 | $2.064 | +0.6% |
| February 2025 | $2.051 | -0.5% |
Recent Events and External Factors
Avian Flu Impact
A recent outbreak of avian influenza among wild birds and poultry farms is raising concerns about the potential impact on food supplies, with the price of chicken nationwide potentially affected if outbreaks force farmers to cull large numbers of birds to prevent the spread of the virus, leading to supply chain disruptions and higher prices for consumers.
However, the bird flu crisis is ravaging the nation's supply of eggs but not chickens, with less than 0.0005% of all broiler production in the U.S. impacted by bird flu between February 2022 and January 2025.
Government Response
In February 2025, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced a $1 billion comprehensive strategy to curb highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), protect the U.S. poultry industry, and lower egg prices. This initiative includes:
- $500 million for biosecurity measures
- $400 million in financial relief for affected farmers
- $100 million for vaccine research
Production System Differences
The hens that lay eggs are not the same as the chickens raised for consumption, with broiler chickens raised for meat being completely different from layer hens raised to lay eggs, and they're raised on different farms in completely different industries.
Egg-laying hens typically start laying eggs after around 18 weeks and can stay productive for a year or longer, while broiler chickens are typically led to the slaughterhouse after six to eight weeks.
Key Price Drivers
1. Seasonal Patterns
The data shows chicken prices typically experience seasonal fluctuations, with recent months showing:
- Spring stability: Prices have remained relatively stable in early 2025
- Winter volatility: Notable price swings occurred in late 2024
2. Long-term Inflation Trends
- 2-year growth: From $1.953 (April 2023) to $2.059 (April 2025) = 5.4% increase
- 3-year growth: From $1.515 (April 2022) to $2.059 (April 2025) = 35.9% increase
3. Supply Chain Resilience
The age of the chicken, geographic region and relation to migrant bird flyways can affect susceptibility to avian influenza. The shorter production cycle for broiler chickens provides more flexibility in managing supply disruptions.
Market Outlook
Positive Factors
- Stable production: Broiler chicken production remains largely unaffected by avian flu
- Government support: $1 billion federal investment in biosecurity and industry support
- Supply chain adaptation: Industry has developed resilience to disease outbreaks
Risk Factors
- Continued avian flu threat: The bird flu picture is evolving and may affect availability and pricing on a wide variety of products for the foreseeable future
- Feed cost pressures: If feed costs increase due to disruptions in the supply of grains used for animal feed, this could lead to price increases for other animal products like beef and pork
- Regulatory changes: Ongoing policy adjustments may impact production costs
Conclusion
Despite significant avian flu outbreaks affecting the broader poultry industry, chicken prices have shown remarkable stability in May 2025. The 2.4% annual increase reflects moderate inflation rather than supply shock, contrasting sharply with the dramatic egg price increases. The structural differences between broiler and layer operations, combined with shorter production cycles for meat chickens, have provided natural protection against the current bird flu crisis.
Price forecast: Chicken prices are likely to remain stable in the near term, with any increases primarily driven by general inflation rather than disease-related supply disruptions, assuming current biosecurity measures prove effective.