Coffee Price Analysis - December 2025

Summary

Key Findings: Coffee prices in the US experienced significant volatility in December 2025, with the latest BLS data showing a price of $9.053 per unit, representing a 33.6% increase year-over-year despite a 2.2% decline from November. This dramatic price movement reflects a complex interplay of supply disruptions, weather challenges, and policy changes that have reshaped the global coffee market.

Current Price Trends

Latest Price Data (December 2025)

• Current Price: $9.053 (BLS data)
• Monthly Change: -2.2% decline from November
• Annual Growth: +33.6% increase from December 2024
• Six-Month Trend: +11.3% increase since June 2025

Price Trajectory Analysis

The data reveals a dramatic price surge throughout 2025, with coffee prices more than doubling from their 2024 levels. The year began with prices at $7.019 in January 2025 and peaked during the summer months before experiencing some moderation in December.

Monthly Price Evolution (2025):

• January: $7.019
• June: $8.132 (+15.9%)
• September: $9.139 (+30.2%)
• November: $9.258 (+32.0%)
• December: $9.053 (+29.0% vs. January)

Recent Market Events and External Factors

Weather and Climate Impacts

In 2025, weather disruptions have played a major role in pushing prices higher. Brazil — responsible for about one-third of the world's coffee — has faced ongoing drought conditions, severely affecting both Arabica and Robusta coffee crops.

Meanwhile, a report from Itaú BBA highlighted that, in the coming months, prices are likely to remain sensitive to erratic weather in Brazil, characterized by below-average rainfall and intense heat, alongside the geopolitical environment.

Trade Policy Changes

In early 2025, U.S. policymakers implemented new tariffs on imported coffee beans from several major producing nations, including a 10% duty on Brazilian imports. The move was part of a broader trade reshuffle aimed at renegotiating agricultural import relationships — but it sent ripples through the industry.

However, recent developments have provided some relief: the rescinding of US reciprocal tariffs, including those on coffee (announced on 14 November 2025), and a Brazil-specific tariff (announced on 20 November 2025). These measures removed some of the uncertainty that had been weighing on the market.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Cecafé reported on January 19 that Brazilian green coffee exports fell 18.4% yoy in December to 2.86 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 10% to 2.6 million bags and Robusta plunging 61% to 222,147 bags.

Brazil's coffee exports fell by 21% in the first half of 2025; port delays cost exporters R$8.7mn in October. Demurrage, storage fees, and delayed shipments increased operational costs, eroded exporters' margins, and disrupted schedules, prompting industry calls for port upgrades and faster customs clearance to safeguard competitiveness ahead of the main harvest.

Key Market Factors

Currency Effects

An additional factor was the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar. Because international coffee prices are denominated in US dollars, movements in producer-country exchange rates affect farmers' selling incentives and USD-denominated prices, particularly in the case of major producers such as Brazil.

Speculation and Market Sentiment

These factors appear to have prompted speculative participants to reduce long positions in the futures market, reinforcing downward price momentum. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitments of Traders (COT) data show that the net long position of non-commercial traders fell from 34,747 lots for the week ending 9 December 2025 to 29,904 lots for the week ending 16 December, and further to 23,673 lots for the week ending 23 December.

Global Supply-Demand Balance

The estimates show a narrower global supply margin as production drops in key origins while demand remains firm. Market observers expect continued pressure on coffee prices if consumption holds steady.

Arabica coffee prices are surging on lingering supply concerns, with 2025/26 production estimates slashed by 11 million bags due to severe drought in Brazil.

Historical Context and Comparisons

Record-Breaking Prices

On January 29, 2025, many sources reported that coffee prices hit an "all time high" or "record highs" at $3.60 a pound. As of the final proofing of this blog on February, 19, 2025, coffee reached a daily high of $4.24 per pound and closed at $4.13.

Calendar year 2025 saw coffee prices reach unprecedented levels in nominal terms. New York hit its all-time high on 13 February, with the main contract at 425.10 cents.

Long-term Price Perspective

The current price surge represents the most significant coffee price increase in nearly five decades. Coffee prices haven't been this high for about 48 years (since 1977)—which means most current roasters, producers, and importers/exporters are in uncharted territory.

Market Outlook and Future Considerations

Production Forecasts

Conab raises Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop estimate to 56.5 million bags. Brazil's National Supply Company raised its official forecast by 2.4% to 56.5 million bags, a 4.3% annual increase. The growth was driven by a record robusta harvest, which surged 42.1%, significantly offsetting a 9.7% decline in arabica output.

Price Stabilization Factors

Reuters reports indicate that the weather in Brazil has been more favorable than last year, and Arabica coffee production in the 2026 harvest is expected to be higher than in 2025. According to Cepea, the heavier rains in recent days in practically all coffee-growing regions of Brazil have brought relief to Arabica producers, favoring the filling of the beans of this variety, during the decisive phase for the good development of the crop.

Conclusion

The December 2025 coffee price data reflects a market in transition, with the 2.2% monthly decline suggesting some stabilization after an extraordinary year of price increases. The 33.6% annual increase underscores the profound impact of weather disruptions, supply chain challenges, and policy changes on global coffee markets. While recent improvements in Brazilian weather conditions and the removal of trade tariffs provide hope for price moderation, the market remains vulnerable to continued volatility as supply chains adjust to new realities and climate-related risks persist.

The coffee industry faces a new paradigm where traditional supply-demand dynamics are increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors, climate change, and speculative trading, making price forecasting more challenging than ever before.