Eggs Price Analysis - December 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Egg prices in December 2025 reached $2.712 per dozen, representing a dramatic 34.6% decline from December 2024 levels of $4.146. This recovery follows an unprecedented crisis that saw prices peak at over $6.00 earlier in 2025 due to the H5N1 avian flu outbreak.
- Current Price: $2.712 per dozen (December 2025)
- Annual Change: -34.6% decrease from December 2024
- Recovery Pattern: Wholesale prices dropped 64%, retail prices fell 27% from 2025 peaks
- Primary Driver: Government intervention and improved biosecurity measures
Recent Price Trends
The December 2025 egg price data reveals a market in significant recovery mode. Egg prices have experienced a dramatic decline from their peak earlier in 2025, with wholesale prices dropping 64% and retail prices falling 27%. The December 2025 price of $2.712 per dozen represents a 34.6% decrease from December 2024 ($4.146), marking a significant recovery from the crisis levels seen in early 2025.
Monthly Price Movement (2025)
- March 2025: $6.227 (peak crisis level)
- June 2025: $3.775 (-39.4% from March)
- September 2025: $3.488 (-44.0% from peak)
- December 2025: $2.712 (-56.5% from peak)
The data shows consistent month-over-month declines throughout the second half of 2025:
- November to December: -5.2% decline
- 3-month decline: -22.2%
- 6-month decline: -28.2%
Key External Factors
H5N1 Avian Flu Outbreak
This historic run of egg-price surge stems from H5N1 avian influenza—or bird flu—hitting poultry producers hard this winter. The increase came after a new version of the virus emerged in wild migratory birds in September 2024 and then jumped to domesticated fowl.
Impact Scale:
- According to USDA market analysis, of the chickens culled since the start of December 2024, 43.3 million were egg laying hens. Already this calendar year, culling has removed about 1 in every 8 conventionally caged hens used to produce eggs.
- H5N1 killed 13.2 million commercial egg-laying hens in the month of December alone and continues to depopulate flocks into 2025
Government Intervention Strategy
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins provided an update on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's comprehensive, five-pronged strategy announced in February to combat Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). After reaching a record high due to the Biden Administration's lack of action, wholesale prices have now dropped 64%, with retail prices falling 27% from their peak earlier this year.
USDA Five-Pronged Strategy:
- Biosecurity Measures: From January 20 to June 26, 2025, USDA has completed 948 total biosecurity assessments on farms across the United States
- Financial Relief: Since February 27, 2025, when USDA increased indemnity values available to producers affected by HPAI, over $70 million has been paid out to directly support layer flocks
- Regulatory Reform: USDA has also taken action to reduce red tape for the poultry industry by eliminating redundant worker safety data submissions and extending line speed waivers
Market Structure and Corporate Factors
Industry Concentration Issues
Food corporations are blaming bird flu for higher prices, but egg producer Cal-Maine pocketed $1 billion in windfall profits before it saw a single outbreak. This highlights concerns about corporate profiteering beyond supply disruption impacts.
Market Power Dynamics:
- Highly concentrated industries empower them. The fewer and bigger the corporations in an industry, the more power these corporations have to sway things like labor conditions, farming practices, and prices.
- Profits are likely near all-time highs for the many egg producers who continue to supply the market. These high profits will keep investment high in the egg industry.
Regulatory Impact
Regulations requiring cage-free egg production in states like Colorado, California, and Washington have contributed to higher prices, as these systems often cost more to operate. USDA will educate consumers and Congress on the need to fix the problem of geographical price differences for eggs, such as in California, where recent regulatory burdens, in addition to avian flu, have resulted in the price of eggs being 60% higher than other regions of the country.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Industrial Production Risks
Production is now concentrated in large industrial-type facilities. One benefit of moving to industrial production of our food was supposed to be improved security of our food supply because of a better ability to prevent disease outbreaks because of tight phytosanitary protocols adopted by large producers. The severe impacts of avian influenza on egg production and the infection of dairy herds with bird flu reveal that these large operations have not prevented disruptions to our food supply.
Recovery Timeline Challenges
We will not return to normal unless bird flu recedes in nature or laying hens develop resistance to the disease. Given it takes hen hatchlings five to six months to lay eggs, when will the egg market recover from the culling of chicken flocks in response to the bird flu outbreak?
Future Outlook
Price Projections
If supply ever returns to normal, then we would expect egg prices to drop by between 45 and 65%. However, Eggs are estimated to cost another 20% throughout 2025 because of new avian flu outbreaks. As long as the avian flu persists, so will high prices.
Market Recovery Indicators
The current price decline represents one of the most dramatic recoveries in egg pricing history, driven by aggressive government intervention and improved biosecurity measures. "For about a year and a half now, the sort of frequency and severity of avian flu outbreaks in the poultry and egg supply chains in the U.S. have sort of just been on the rise in a big way. Everyone is just sort of hoping that, 'OK, this will be the last one, then we'll get back to normal.' But we keep on not getting back to normal."
Conclusion
The December 2025 egg price of $2.712 represents a remarkable recovery from crisis levels, driven primarily by coordinated government intervention and improved biosecurity measures. While prices have declined significantly from their 2025 peaks, the market remains vulnerable to future outbreaks due to structural issues in industrial poultry production and ongoing H5N1 circulation in wild bird populations. The 34.6% annual decline demonstrates the effectiveness of targeted policy responses, though long-term price stability will depend on continued disease management and potential industry restructuring.