Eggs Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Egg prices in May 2025 showed significant relief after reaching historic peaks, declining to $4.548 per dozen from March's record high of $6.23. Despite this improvement, prices remain 68.5% higher than May 2024, reflecting the ongoing impact of the largest avian flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Current Price Trends
May 2025 Performance
- Current Price: $4.55 in May (BLS data)
- Monthly Decline: down from $5.12 in April and $6.23 in March
- Year-over-Year Impact: 68.5% increase from May 2024 ($2.699)
- Three-Month Decline: 22.9% decrease from February 2025 peak
Historical Context
The current price represents a dramatic shift from pre-outbreak levels:
- 2021 Average: Under $1.80 per dozen throughout the year
- March 2025 Peak: $6.23 per dozen - the highest price on record
- Recovery Pattern: Similar to 2023 when prices peaked at $4.82 in January before declining
Key Factors Driving Price Volatility
1. Avian Flu Outbreak (H5N1)
Egg prices have repeatedly hit record highs because of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu, that has devastated flocks of egg-laying hens.
Scale of Impact:
- About 163 million chickens, turkeys and other birds have died from the virus or been culled to contain its spread since the U.S. outbreak in poultry began in 2022
- 43.3 million were egg laying hens culled since December 2024, representing about 1 in every 8 conventionally caged hens
New Strain Emergence:
- The increase came after a new version of the virus emerged in wild migratory birds in September 2024 and then jumped to domesticated fowl. "The main issue has been the emergence of a new genotype, the D1.1," according to avian influenza expert David Swayne
2. Supply Chain Disruption
Flock Reduction:
- As of Jan. 1, the country had 304 million laying hens producing table eggs, down 2% from a year earlier and 11% from five years ago
- there were only about 285 million hens laying eggs nationwide as of March 1, down from 293 million the previous month. Before the outbreak, the flock typically numbered more than 315 million
Recovery Timeline:
- It takes 19 to 20 weeks before hens are ready to produce eggs, according to the American Egg Board. The trade group also notes that it can take more than a year for farms suffering a bird flu outbreak to secure the required government clearance to resume operations
3. Regional Price Variations
State Regulations Impact:
- In 2025, seven states — California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon and Washington — have laws in place that ban the production and sale of conventional eggs for animal welfare reasons
- in California, the price per dozen topped $12 in some stores
- California, where recent regulatory burdens, in addition to avian flu, have resulted in the price of eggs being 60% higher than other regions of the country
Geographic Price Examples (April 2025):
| Location | Price per Dozen | Type |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco, CA | $9.99 | Cage-free |
| Denver, CO | $6.69 | Cage-free |
| Washington, D.C. | $5.29 | Regular |
| Omaha, NE | $4.97 | Regular |
Government Response and Policy Actions
USDA $1 Billion Initiative
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins today announced a $1 billion-dollar comprehensive strategy to curb highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), protect the U.S. poultry industry, and lower egg prices.
Five-Pronged Strategy:
- Biosecurity Measures: USDA has expanded biosecurity assessments to commercial poultry producers nationwide, prioritizing egg-laying facilities in top-producing states. More than 130 facilities have undergone assessments in 2025
- Research Investment: $100 million funding opportunity... to support research into HPAI prevention, therapeutics, and potential vaccines
- Vaccine Development: The USDA has said it is rebuilding a stockpile of vaccines and granted a conditional license to animal-health company Zoetis
Market Response to Policy
Since February 26, wholesale egg prices have dropped nearly 50%. The New York wholesale egg price, which peaked at $8.53 per dozen, has steadily declined to $4.08 as of March 19.
Recent Market Developments
Wholesale vs. Retail Pricing
- Wholesale Recovery: Significant decline from peak levels
- Retail Lag: Retail prices fell again in May, but are still up 41.5% in the past year
- Supply Chain Factors: retail markups are usually 20% to 30% higher than the wholesale price, though bird flu may change that dynamic
Industry Investigation
Cal-Maine acknowledged it is being investigated by the antitrust division of the U.S. Department of Justice, which is looking into egg price increases. Cal-Maine provides 20% of the nation's eggs.
Future Outlook
Short-term Projections
- The USDA predicts prices will go up another 20 percent this year
- Egg prices are still expected to decline further later this spring
- Seasonal factors may cause temporary fluctuations
Long-term Challenges
Ongoing Threats:
- While avian flu — which has driven price spikes in recent years — has eased somewhat, it remains a lurking threat. The Agriculture Department reports "major outbreaks" in Arizona in recent weeks
- Bird flu remains a threat — and so do tariffs
Recovery Requirements:
- the first thing we need is the disease to quit occurring and wiping out chicken farms. And the second thing is just time. Time to rebuild flocks to replace the lost birds
Conclusion
May 2025 egg prices reflect a market in transition, showing encouraging signs of recovery from historic peaks while remaining significantly elevated compared to pre-outbreak levels. The 11.2% monthly decline to $4.548 per dozen demonstrates the effectiveness of government intervention and industry adaptation, yet the 68.5% year-over-year increase underscores the persistent impact of the H5N1 outbreak.
The path forward depends critically on containing the avian flu outbreak, successful implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures, and the time required for flock rebuilding. While wholesale prices have shown dramatic improvement, retail price normalization will likely lag, and regional variations will persist due to state regulations and local outbreak patterns.