Ground Beef Price Analysis - December 2025
Summary
Ground beef prices reached $6.687 per pound in December 2025, representing a dramatic 19.3% increase over the past 12 months. This surge significantly outpaces overall inflation and reflects a complex interplay of supply constraints, demand patterns, and external economic factors.
Key Findings:
- Current Price: $6.687 per pound (December 2025)
- Annual Increase: 19.3% year-over-year
- Monthly Growth: 2.2% from November to December
- Supply Crisis: U.S. cattle herd at lowest point in nearly 75 years
- Future Outlook: Beef prices predicted to increase another 9.4% in 2026
Recent Price Trends
Short-Term Movement (December 2025)
The latest data shows ground beef prices increased $0.147 from November to December 2025, marking a 2.2% monthly rise. This acceleration follows a pattern of consistent increases throughout 2025:
| Period | Price | Monthly Change | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $6.687 | +2.2% | +19.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $6.540 | +3.5% | +16.2% |
| Sep 2025 | $6.323 | +0.1% | +11.5% |
| Aug 2025 | $6.318 | +1.0% | +13.3% |
Long-Term Trajectory
Since July 2020, ground beef prices have spiked 48%, demonstrating the sustained inflationary pressure on this protein staple. The current price of $6.687 represents a significant milestone, as ground beef exceeded $6 per pound earlier in 2025.
Key Factors Driving Price Increases
1. Cattle Herd Contraction
The U.S. cattle herd has decreased in size since 2019
The primary driver of ground beef inflation is a severe supply shortage. Cattle ranchers have shrunk their herds by more than 15% in the last two decades, with cattle inventory sitting at just over 94 million animals. This represents the smallest cattle herd in nearly 75 years.
Supply Chain Impact:
- Farm-level cattle prices were 23.9% higher in November 2025 than in November 2024
- Wholesale beef prices were 15.1% higher in November 2025 than in November 2024
- American beef production is set to fall 4% in 2025 and a further 2% in 2026
2. Strong Consumer Demand
Consumer demand has remained strong in the face of tighter supplies, creating a classic supply-demand imbalance. Strong demand for protein amid a shrinking cattle herd continues to put upward pressure on prices.
3. Economic and Policy Factors
Trump's tariff policy played a role in the rise of food prices, with 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum pushing up can and packaging costs. The price of steel cans has jumped 16% over the past year, affecting the broader food supply chain.
Current Market Context
Broader Food Inflation
Food prices climbed 2.4% over the year ending in December, with food prices in December 2025 being 3.1% higher than in December 2024. Ground beef's 19.3% annual increase significantly exceeds this broader food inflation rate.
Comparative Protein Prices
While ground beef soars, other proteins show different patterns:
- Pork: Prices fell 1.4% from November to December 2025 and were 0.8% higher year-over-year
- Poultry: Prices increased 0.3% monthly and 1.4% annually
- Eggs: Prices plummeted 20.9% in December compared to the previous year
Industry Response and Consumer Impact
Business Perspective
"We have got to build the herd, period," said Nate Rempe, CEO of Omaha Steaks. "The cost of beef has increased so much that it's really starting to hit our bottom line."
Consumer Behavior
Consumer confidence in beef during May 2025 was down 26.5% from the year before, with consumers pulling back their beef spending and opting for relatively stable alternatives such as poultry or pork.
Future Outlook
Supply Recovery Timeline
Even if ranchers start retaining heifers for breeding today, meaningful supply improvements are unlikely to reach supermarket shelves before 2028, as the reproductive cycle of cattle is slow and supply cannot be accelerated.
Price Projections
- 2026 Forecast: Beef and veal prices are predicted to increase 9.4% in 2026
- Farm-level prices: Predicted to increase by 6.1% in 2026
- Wholesale prices: Predicted to increase by 6.9% in 2026
Summary
Ground beef prices in December 2025 reflect a perfect storm of supply constraints, sustained demand, and external economic pressures. At $6.687 per pound, representing a 19.3% annual increase, ground beef has become a significant driver of food inflation. The structural nature of the cattle herd shortage suggests that elevated prices will persist well into 2026 and potentially beyond, making this a long-term challenge for both consumers and the food industry.
The combination of the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, strong protein demand, and additional cost pressures from tariffs and packaging materials creates a challenging environment that is unlikely to resolve quickly. Consumers can expect continued pressure on their grocery budgets, particularly for beef products, as the industry works through this extended supply shortage.