Lettuce Price Analysis - April 2025

Summary

Lettuce prices have experienced significant volatility in 2025, with April showing a $1.515 per pound average price, representing a 3.4% monthly increase but a 13.6% decline compared to April 2024. The market continues to face challenges from seasonal transitions, weather-related disruptions, and ongoing drought conditions affecting key growing regions.

Key Finding: Despite recent monthly gains, lettuce prices remain 13.6% lower than the same period last year, indicating market recovery from previous supply disruptions.

Recent Price Trends

April 2025 Performance

• Current Price: $1.515 per pound
• Monthly Change: +3.4% (+$0.050)
• 3-Month Change: -6.4% (-$0.103)
• 6-Month Change: +7.1% (+$0.101)
• Annual Change: -13.6% (-$0.239)

Historical Context

The current price of $1.515 represents a recovery from the February 2025 low of $1.465, but remains significantly below the peak of $1.754 reached in April 2024. The data shows extreme volatility throughout 2024, with prices ranging from a low of $1.414 in October 2024 to highs exceeding $1.70 during winter months.

Key External Factors Affecting Prices

Seasonal Growing Transitions

The lettuce industry is currently navigating the annual transition from Yuma, Arizona, to Salinas, California, which typically occurs in early April, coinciding with increased spring demand for salads. Cold overnight temperatures during the Arizona growing season have caused both yield and quality issues, with iceberg lettuce volume fluctuating significantly due to harvesting delays.

Weather and Climate Challenges

Recent drought monitoring shows that drought conditions have improved slightly in California and Nevada over the last 4-8 weeks, though northern California received above-normal precipitation while central and southern portions received below- to well-below-normal precipitation. In the Intermountain West, extreme and exceptional drought coverage increased from 20% to 27% between March and May 2025, with the worst conditions in New Mexico and Arizona.

Disease and Crop Health Issues

Historical data indicates ongoing challenges with crop diseases. The Salinas Valley has experienced significant yield reductions of up to 75% due to the impatiens necrotic spot virus (INSV), which has been affecting crops for 2-3 years with limited mitigation options.

Regional Production Impact

California-Arizona Dominance

California and Arizona dominate U.S. lettuce production, with California accounting for 71% of head lettuce production and Arizona producing nearly 29%, while these states also produce over 98% of leaf lettuce. Monterey County alone grows 61% of the nation's leaf lettuce, 57% of celery, and 56% of head lettuce supply.

Water Resource Concerns

Arizona produces over 90% of the nation's winter lettuce, with farmers relying on water from the Colorado River, which saw reduced rain and snow this year. Most of California's produce is irrigated, but drought still affects water availability and therefore yield and production.

Market Outlook

Short-term Projections

Market pricing is expected to remain at significantly elevated levels during the seasonal transition, with buyers of leafy greens facing challenging conditions for several weeks, though prices should gradually ease once the industry fully transitions to Salinas production.

Climate Forecasts

National Weather Service forecasts favor a warming and drying trend over the coming weeks and next 3 months, with little atmospheric river activity forecast over California and Nevada, signaling the end of the winter wet season.

Historical Price Volatility

The data reveals significant price swings over recent years:

• 2024 Range: $1.414 - $1.754 (24% variation)
• 2023 Range: $1.522 - $1.700 (12% variation)
• Peak Historical: $1.754 (April 2024)
• Recent Low: $1.414 (October 2024)

Conclusion

Lettuce prices in April 2025 reflect a market in transition, with modest monthly gains but continued pressure from weather-related challenges and seasonal production shifts. While prices remain below 2024 peaks, ongoing drought conditions in key growing regions and the seasonal transition from Arizona to California production suggest continued volatility in the near term. The industry's heavy reliance on two states for production makes it particularly vulnerable to regional weather events and water availability issues.