Lettuce Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Lettuce prices in the United States have experienced significant volatility in 2025, with current prices at $1.438 per pound in May 2025, representing a 15% decline from the previous year. However, this follows a period of severe shortages and price spikes, with statistics showing a 30% drop in yield compared to previous years. The market has been characterized by substantial price swings, with monthly percentage changes ranging from -15.0% to +16.1% over the past year.
Current Price Trends
Latest Price Data (May 2025)
- Current Price: $1.438 per pound
- Monthly Change: -5.1% (down $0.077 from April)
- Quarterly Change: -5.5% (down $0.084 from February)
- Semi-Annual Change: -12.4% (down $0.203 from November 2024)
- Annual Change: -15.0% (down $0.254 from May 2024)
Historical Price Volatility
The data reveals extreme price volatility throughout 2024-2025:
| Period | Price | Monthly Change | Notable Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | $1.641 | +16.1% | Peak price surge |
| Dec 2024 | $1.705 | +3.9% | Continued high prices |
| Jan 2025 | $1.618 | -5.1% | Price correction begins |
| May 2025 | $1.438 | -5.1% | Stabilization phase |
Key Factors Driving Price Changes
Weather and Climate Impacts
Droughts can lead to water scarcity, affecting the overall yield, while floods and heat waves can cause irreparable damage to lettuce plants, resulting in a decreased supply. Climate change has led to increasingly frequent and severe weather events like droughts, floods, and heatwaves that devastate lettuce crops.
Alternating weeks of warm and cold weather, as well as rain and hail, have reduced supplies. Production crews are working slowly through poor field conditions, which has decreased overall yields and pushed markets higher.
Disease and Pest Pressures
Lettuce crops have been hit hard by diseases such as the Impatiens Necrotic Spot Virus (INSV) and bacterial leaf spot, which compromise the quality and quantity of the harvest. Pests like aphids and caterpillars damage the leaves, making them unsellable and reducing overall production.
Elevated levels of bottom rot, dirt/mud, epidermal blistering/peeling with discoloration, mildew damage, pinking, and mechanical damage are affecting finished pack yields.
Supply Chain Disruptions
The lettuce shortage has disrupted the supply chain, causing delays and increased expenses for producers. This has forced many producers to source lettuce from alternative regions or countries, often at a higher cost.
Issues such as fuel shortages and labor strikes have disrupted the transportation of lettuce from farms to markets, exacerbating the shortage. The reliance on "just-in-time" inventory systems means that any delay in the supply chain leads to immediate shortages in stores.
Water Scarcity Issues
The ongoing Mexican drought is significantly impacting U.S. produce prices. As nearly 40 percent of the country's reservoirs dip below 20 percent capacity, growers are under pressure to reduce water usage.
Water supplies are an issue, especially in Arizona. That state depends on the Colorado River to keep lettuce fields irrigated. The last few years have seen cuts and restrictions due to drought, so future lettuce harvests might struggle even if the weather looks good.
Recent Market Developments
Price Recovery Signs
Green leaf, red leaf, romaine, and romaine hearts will be in abundant supply this week, with strong quality and minimal issues such as fringe or tip burn. Consistently good weights and favorable weather conditions are driving the current surplus.
Fortunately for California lettuce growers, the sun came out for Memorial Day, and forecasts show the warming trend is here to stay. Supply should steadily improve over the next few weeks as the warmer weather decreases disease pressure and increases growth rates.
Wholesale Price Impact
In February 2025, some wholesale prices were up to $30 or even $40 a box for certain types like iceberg and romaine. That might not sound wild until you remember those boxes usually sell for much less when times are good.
Long-term Outlook
No one expects prices to crash back to normal overnight. Growers, shippers, and grocery chains all have to recover losses and plan for the next year. Ongoing risks — like new waves of INSV, surprise cold snaps, or more water shortages — could mean we'll see more unpredictable lettuce prices going forward.
Structural Challenges
This is a clear case of how climate change is impacting our dinner plates, in real-time. And we are slowly coming to the realization that our current approach to getting leafy greens over the winter months is no longer sustainable.
Potential Solutions
One potential solution is to invest in advanced agricultural technologies that can improve crop yields and reduce the risk of crop failures. This includes fancy farming tech, like GMO crops and vertical farming.
Conclusion
The lettuce market in 2025 has demonstrated remarkable volatility, with prices declining 15% year-over-year to $1.438 per pound by May 2025. While recent data suggests supply conditions are improving with favorable weather patterns, the market remains vulnerable to climate-related disruptions, disease outbreaks, and supply chain challenges. The structural issues affecting lettuce production—including water scarcity, climate change impacts, and supply chain vulnerabilities—suggest continued price volatility in the near term, even as immediate supply conditions show signs of stabilization.