Lettuce Price Analysis - November 2025

Summary

Lettuce prices have experienced dramatic volatility throughout 2025, with November showing a significant price surge to $1.987 per pound, representing a 21.1% increase year-over-year and a 38.2% increase over the past six months. This price spike follows a period of earlier price declines in 2025 and reflects ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by multiple converging factors.

Key Finding: The current price of $1.987 represents one of the highest levels in recent years, driven by seasonal transition challenges and persistent supply constraints.

Current Price Trends

The November 2025 lettuce price of $1.987 per pound shows significant volatility patterns:

• 3-month change: +18.8% ($0.314 increase)
• 6-month change: +38.2% ($0.549 increase)
• 12-month change: +21.1% ($0.346 increase)

Earlier in 2025, lettuce prices were actually trending lower, with head lettuce prices from January through October being 4% below 2024 prices. However, the November surge represents a dramatic reversal of this trend.

Key Factors Driving Price Increases

Weather and Growing Conditions

Adverse weather conditions throughout 2024, including extreme heatwaves in California and Florida, led to notable increases in grower prices for foundational crops such as lettuce. Extreme heat, heavy rain, and erratic patterns have hammered production, especially in key growing regions like Yuma, Arizona, and California's Salinas Valley, with growers reporting lighter weights and lower yields.

Disease Pressure

The Impatiens necrotic spot virus (INSV)—spread by thrips—has been the leading cause of supply cuts in late-season Salinas lettuce, reducing yields and pushing markets higher, with reports citing INSV as the primary driver of shortages. The virus causes wilting, stem death, stunting, yellowing, poor flowering, and "chicken pox-like" sunken spots on leaves, and is spread by thrip insects.

Seasonal Transition Challenges

Industry updates indicate Yuma starts harvesting the week of November 10, with processors/cross-docks not shipping out until the following week of November 17, with a staggered ramp through late November as fields come into steady volume. The desert season runs November–April, supplying most of the nation's leafy greens through winter.

Recent Market Events

Supply Chain Disruptions

As of October 31, 2025, the Salinas Valley is winding down for the season with lower yields and notable quality defects, while shippers stage the annual move to the desert. During the worst of the shortage in early 2025, the price of a box of iceberg or romaine lettuce often jumped to $30–$40, compared to prices that usually hover around half of that amount.

Quality Issues

Quality issues include tip burn/internal burn, dehydration/wilting, growth cracks, insect pressure, and discoloration/pinking on ribs and butts, tracing back to late-season weather stress and INSV pressure in Salinas.

Regional Production Impacts

California's Salinas Valley

INSV was first reported in 2006 in the Salinas Valley in California, which is responsible for 70% of the U.S.'s crop. A single week of heavy rain in February 2025 led to widespread flooding in California's Salinas Valley, drowning seedlings and washing out young plants.

Arizona Production

In Yuma, a key winter growing region, record cold snaps followed unusual warmth, shocking lettuce crops and disrupting their growth cycle. The agriculture labor crunch in places like Yuma is intensifying, affecting diverse crops including lettuce, a broader issue that's been brewing since early 2025.

Economic Context

Regulatory Costs

A recent study from Cal Poly found regulatory costs increased from $109 per acre in 2006 to $1,600 per lettuce acre in 2024, adding significant pressure to production costs.

Consumer Impact

The shortage is most noticeable for romaine and leaf lettuces, with organic options hit hardest—expect spotty availability at grocery stores and a bump in salad kit prices.

Market Outlook

Markets are expected to stay elevated until the Yuma ramp stabilizes late November; improvement should follow as fields hit stride—weather permitting. Lettuce prices have finally settled down in some areas, with boxed iceberg and romaine now selling below their five-year averages in certain markets.

Conclusion

The November 2025 lettuce price surge to $1.987 reflects a complex interplay of seasonal transition challenges, disease pressure, weather disruptions, and supply chain constraints. While prices may stabilize as Arizona production ramps up, the underlying vulnerabilities in the lettuce supply chain—including concentration in specific growing regions, disease susceptibility, and increasing regulatory costs—suggest continued volatility ahead. The 21.1% year-over-year increase demonstrates the significant impact these factors have had on consumer prices.