Oranges Price Analysis - May 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Orange prices in the US showed a 1.4% monthly decline in May 2025 to $1.675 per pound, despite ongoing supply constraints from citrus greening disease and weather challenges. While prices remain elevated compared to historical levels, recent production forecast improvements in Florida provide cautious optimism for the industry.
Current Price Trends
May 2025 Price: $1.675 per pound
- Monthly change: -1.4% (-$0.024)
- 3-month change: +0.4% (+$0.007)
- 6-month change: -2.2% (-$0.038)
- Annual change: +1.6% (+$0.027)
The latest data shows orange prices experienced a modest decline in May 2025, breaking a pattern of volatility seen throughout the year. This represents the first significant monthly decrease since January 2025.
Recent Production Developments
Florida's 2024–25 all-orange forecast climbed 3% to 12 million boxes. That's an increase of 370,000 boxes since the May forecast of 11.63 million boxes. This upward revision in production forecasts likely contributed to the price decline observed in May 2025.
Valencias climbed 350,000 boxes since May to 7.4 million boxes, representing a 5% increase. The improvement was primarily driven by Valencia oranges, which are crucial for juice production.
However, challenges persist: If the forecast is realized, it will be more than a third less than 2023–24 Florida orange production of 18.06 million boxes.
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Disease Impact
Growers continue to persevere despite the impacts of citrus greening and repeated hurricanes that have taken a toll on their crop. Citrus greening (HLB) remains a persistent threat to production capacity.
Long-term Supply Constraints
Total U.S. citrus production levels are projected to continue their long-term decline over the next several years before stabilizing through 2034, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It attributed that expected trend to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines.
Global Supply Issues
The 2024-25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million boxes of 40.8 kg oranges, a 27.4% drop from the 2023/24 season. According to Cepea, adverse weather conditions have hampered production for five consecutive seasons, resulting in restricted juice stocks. Brazil's production challenges continue to impact global orange supply.
Historical Context
| Period | Price | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | $1.675 | -1.4% |
| April 2025 | $1.699 | +0.2% |
| March 2025 | $1.695 | +1.6% |
| February 2025 | $1.668 | -0.5% |
| January 2025 | $1.676 | -3.3% |
Comparing to historical data:
- May 2024: $1.648 (current price 1.6% higher)
- May 2019: $1.365 (current price 22.7% higher)
- May 2018: $1.330 (current price 25.9% higher)
Market Outlook
Short-term Factors
- Production improvements: Recent Florida forecast increases may provide temporary price relief
- Seasonal patterns: Summer months typically see price stability for fresh oranges
- Processing demand: Juice production requirements continue to support price floors
Long-term Challenges
Total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase from $2.975 billion in 2025 to $3.605 billion in 2034 as a result of higher prices. This suggests continued upward pressure on prices despite production challenges.
Florida production of oranges, grapefruit and tangerines is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses.
Conclusion
Orange prices in May 2025 reflect a market in transition, with short-term production improvements providing modest relief from the persistent supply constraints that have characterized the industry. While the 1.4% monthly decline offers some respite for consumers, the underlying fundamentals - including citrus greening disease, climate challenges, and long-term production declines - suggest that orange prices will likely remain elevated compared to historical norms. The industry's focus on research and recovery efforts will be crucial for future price stability.