Oranges Price Analysis - December 2025
Summary
Orange prices in December 2025 reached $1.542 per pound, representing an 11.0% decline from the previous year and continuing a significant downward trend that began in late 2025. This decline comes despite ongoing structural challenges in the citrus industry, including disease pressures and reduced production capacity.
The December 2025 price of $1.542 represents the lowest point in a sustained decline that has seen prices fall 10.1% over six months and 11.0% year-over-year.
Current Price Trends
Recent Performance
- December 2025: $1.542 per pound (-1.3% monthly, -11.0% annually)
- November 2025: $1.563 per pound (-8.8% annually)
- September 2025: $1.699 per pound (+1.6% annually)
The data shows a clear inflection point occurred between September and November 2025, when prices shifted from modest year-over-year gains to significant declines.
Historical Context
| Period | Price | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $1.542 | -11.0% |
| Dec 2024 | $1.733 | -2.6% |
| Dec 2023 | $1.780 | +6.1% |
Key Factors Affecting Prices
Supply Chain Challenges
The citrus industry continues to face unfavorable weather and continuing disease problems, especially citrus greening in Florida. Production in Florida is forecast down 33 percent while production in California is down 1 percent.
Production Outlook
The most recent Florida all orange crop forecast is down 35% from the 2023-24 finalized total of 808,000 tons. If the March forecast for the 2024-25 crop is realized, it would be the smallest crop for the state in 95 years at 522,000 tons.
Industry Structural Decline
Industry revenue has dropped at a CAGR of 5.0% since 2020 to reach an expected $3.2 billion after a decrease of 2.4% in 2025. Orange and citrus farmers have struggled during the current period.
Recent Events Impacting Prices
Weather and Disease Impact
Millions in dollars in damage caused by Hurricane Milton in 2024 impacted Florida's citrus industry, which is already struggling from citrus greening disease, also known as huanglongbing.
Global Supply Dynamics
The 2024-25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million boxes of 40.8 kg oranges, a 27.4% drop from the 2023/24 season. According to Cepea, adverse weather conditions have hampered production for five consecutive seasons, resulting in restricted juice stocks.
Import Dependency
With the Florida citrus crop expected to be low, citrus import share for juice will reach 90% in the current season, with Brazil and Mexico supplying 95% of U.S. juice imports.
Market Analysis
Price Volatility Patterns
The data reveals significant seasonal and cyclical volatility:
- 2023: Prices peaked at $1.834 in October before declining
- 2024: Relatively stable around $1.65-$1.73 range
- 2025: Sharp decline from September highs to December lows
Long-term Projections
Total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase from $2.975 billion in 2025 to $3.605 billion in 2034 as a result of higher prices. This suggests continued upward pressure on prices despite production challenges.
Outlook
Despite the current price decline, structural factors suggest potential for future price increases:
Production Constraints: According to the USDA's long-term projections, published in February 2025, total US citrus production is expected to continue its gradual decline through 2030. This trend is driven by persistent decreases in orange and grapefruit output, particularly in Florida and Texas
Industry Consolidation: There are 6,427 businesses in the Orange & Citrus Groves industry in the United States, which has declined at a CAGR of 1.4 % between 2020 and 2025
The December 2025 price decline appears to be driven by temporary market factors rather than fundamental supply improvements, suggesting prices may stabilize or increase as structural supply constraints continue to impact the market.