Pork Chops Price Analysis - December 2025
Summary
Key Findings:
- Pork prices fell 1.4 percent from November 2025 to December 2025 and were 0.8 percent higher in December 2025 than in December 2024
- Current pork chop price of $4.298 per pound represents a 4.9% monthly increase despite overall pork sector decline
- The USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report places the December 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 75.5 million head, up 0.3% from last quarter and 0.6% year-over-year
- "This is a bearish report, and we haven't had one of those for a while" according to industry economists
Current Market Position
The December 2025 pork chop price of $4.298 per pound shows interesting divergence from broader pork market trends. While the BLS data indicates a strong 4.9% monthly increase from November's $4.097, this contrasts with pork and eggs experiencing large price decreases in the overall market.
Year-over-Year Comparison
- December 2025: $4.298
- December 2024: $4.308
- Net change: -$0.010 (-0.2%)
Recent Market Trends
Short-term Volatility (1-6 months)
The data reveals significant price volatility in recent months:
| Period | Price | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | $4.298 | +4.9% |
| November 2025 | $4.097 | -4.7% (3-month) |
| September 2025 | $4.349 | +1.2% |
| August 2025 | $4.299 | -0.8% |
The 4.9% monthly increase in December represents a sharp reversal from the declining trend seen in late 2025.
Supply-Side Pressures
The USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report places the December 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 75.5 million head, up 0.3% from last quarter and 0.6% year-over-year, compared to an average trade expectation of about 1% lower. The increase is driven by a 0.8% year-over-year increase in market hogs.
Critical Supply Factors:
- The smallest December 1 breeding herd since 2014
- The 180-pound-and-over weight class of market hogs is up 2.8% from a year ago, compared to expectations of just 0.5% higher
- Hog slaughter during the last three weeks has been up 4.6% year-over-year
Key External Factors
Production Economics
Calculations by economists at Iowa State University estimate the typical Iowa farrow-to-finish operation earned a profit of $33.77 for each hog marketed in October. October was the 19th consecutive profitable month. During the first 10 months of 2025 hog profits averaged $30 per head marketed.
Feed Cost Environment
- USDA is forecasting the average farm price of corn during the 2025-26 marketing year at $4.00 per bushel. This is 24 cents less than the estimate for the 2024-25 year and 55 cents less than the actual for the 2023-24 marketing year
- Lower feed costs have supported producer profitability despite market pressures
Export Market Dynamics
In the latest available data, given government shutdowns, the U.S. exported 543 million pounds of pork in August or about 3% below the prior August. Mexico accounted for about 41% of those shipments, around 3% more than a year ago. Although South Korea took 20% more shipments during the period than a year ago, fewer shipments went to other major buyers with Japan around 10% lower, Canada at 17% lower, and China and Hong Kong about 23% lower than a year ago. Based on this weakness, U.S. pork exports are estimated to be 2.2% and 2.5% lower than last year for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2025.
Trade Tensions
Mexico's Economy Ministry has launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into imports of US pork leg and shoulder, a move that could ultimately result in new duties on the products. The probe will examine whether US pork exports harmed Mexico's domestic pork industry between 2022 and 2024.
Market Outlook
2026 Projections
- Pork prices are predicted to decrease 0.3 percent in 2026, with a prediction interval of -6.6 to 6.3 percent
- 2026 commercial pork production of 28.2 billion pounds, a volume 2.3 percent higher than in 2025. Prices of 2026 national-producer-sold live-equivalent hogs are forecast to average $67 per cwt, almost 3 percent lower than the 2025 average
Consumption Trends
The USDA estimates U.S. per capita pork consumption at 49.1 pounds per person for 2025, and forecasts the number dropping to 48.9 pounds per person in 2026, well below prior highs of 52.1 pounds per person in 2019.
Risk Factors
Upside Risks:
- Continued strong domestic demand
- Potential export recovery
- Robust export sales. Low prices in the second half of November likely encouraged packers and exporters to put more orders on the books
Downside Risks:
- Increased production capacity
- Trade disputes affecting exports
- Moderately profitable 2026, with losses not projected until late in the year. There are favorable margins with some upside possible, but notable downside potential based on historical levels
Despite short-term price increases, the fundamental supply-demand balance suggests continued pressure on pork prices through 2026, with the December surge likely representing seasonal demand patterns rather than a sustained trend reversal.