Rice Price Analysis - December 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Rice prices in December 2025 reached $1.076 per pound, representing a 4.3% annual increase despite significant downward pressure from global competition. The market shows strong recent momentum with 1.0% monthly growth and 1.5% quarterly growth, contrasting sharply with the broader trend of declining global rice prices.
Current Price Trends
The latest BLS data shows rice prices at $1.076 per pound in December 2025, marking several important trends:
- Monthly Growth: +1.0% increase from November 2025 ($1.065)
- Quarterly Growth: +1.5% increase over 3 months
- Semi-Annual Growth: +1.4% increase over 6 months
- Annual Growth: +4.3% increase from December 2024 ($1.032)
Historical Context
| Period | Price | Monthly Change | Annual Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | $1.076 | +1.0% | +4.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $1.065 | - | +0.4% |
| Dec 2024 | $1.032 | -2.7% | +4.2% |
| Dec 2023 | $0.990 | -0.2% | +2.0% |
Recent Market Events and External Factors
Global Competition Pressures
U.S. rice prices have plummeted 37% since early 2024, with world rice prices falling as USDA projected India's rice exports could reach 25 million metric tons in the 2024-25 marketing year. The broad decline in the world rice price has been from India's decision to lift its rice export ban in September 2024. Nearly a year later, Indian exports continue to exert downward pressure on international markets.
Price Competitiveness Challenges
U.S. long-grain rice is currently priced around $585 per ton, which represents the most expensive rice on the world market. In contrast, India, Pakistan and Thailand are all competing for the cheapest rice on the market, priced at around $360 per ton.
Production and Supply Factors
For 2025/26, all rice production is lowered 0.6 million cwt to 206.7 million on lower medium-/short-grain production. All rice ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 3.6 million cwt to 49.3 million, down 8.5 percent from the highest ending stocks since the mid-1980's.
Key Market Drivers
Weather and Production Impacts
Farmers in the Midsouth faced historic flooding in April that forced replanting across a significant portion of the Mississippi Delta. As Delta farmers put planting behind them, the growing season brought extreme heat and prolonged drought. Even with California's improved season, the production setbacks in the Mississippi Delta offset those gains.
Trade Policy Considerations
USA Rice is urging the Trump administration to adopt reciprocal tariffs that would charge countries exporting rice to the United States the same tariffs they levy on U.S. rice exports. In the case of India and Thailand, which account for 80% of the 1.5 million metric tons of U.S. annual rice imports, that would be a 52% tariff on Thai imports and a 70 to 80% tariff on India's.
Global Demand Patterns
Global rice prices have trended downward throughout 2025, primarily due to weaker global demand, India resuming rice exports, much lower import demand from Indonesia and a temporary ban on rice imports in the Philippines.
Price Outlook and Projections
USDA Forecasts
The all-rice price is revised down 40 cents per cwt to $14.80 for 2024/25 and raised 20 cents to $11.80 per cwt for 2025/26. Farm prices for long-grain rice are forecast to decline to $12.00 per cwt, while the prices for Southern medium- and short-grain rice are forecast at $12.50 per cwt. These expectations represent a severe decline from the 2024-25 marketing year, with long-grain, and Southern medium- and short-grain prices falling 14% and 18%, respectively.
Export Market Dynamics
Total U.S. rice exports in 2025/26 are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 92.0 million, but still 1.6 percent above a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for all the downward revision, lowered 2.0 million cwt to 62.0 million, still 2 percent above a year earlier.
Notable Price Volatility Patterns
The data reveals significant volatility throughout 2025:
- Peak: $1.068 in July 2025 (+6.0% over 6 months)
- Trough: $1.008 in January 2025 (-3.0% over 6 months)
- Recovery: Steady climb from September through December 2025
Critical Insight: Despite global downward pressure, U.S. consumer rice prices have shown resilience in the final quarter of 2025, suggesting domestic market factors may be providing some insulation from international price competition.
Conclusion
The December 2025 rice price of $1.076 represents a complex market dynamic where domestic consumer prices have maintained upward momentum despite severe global competitive pressures. Industry experts note that conditions are "just as dire as they were back then" referring to the 1980s crisis, prompting significant advocacy efforts with the Trump administration for policy changes. The divergence between rising consumer prices and falling farm-level projections suggests significant market structure changes that warrant continued monitoring.