Tomatoes Price Analysis - April 2025
Summary
The Agricultural Prices Received Index declined in March after several months of strong growth. The index pulled back by 3.1% from the previous month but rose 17% compared with March 2024. The latest BLS data shows tomato prices at $1.793 per pound in April 2025, representing a -8.6% decline year-over-year and a significant -12.5% drop over the past three months. This downward trend contrasts sharply with the record-high pricing experienced during the 2023-2024 winter season.
Key Finding: Tomato prices have experienced substantial volatility, with current prices down significantly from their peak levels in early 2024, influenced by seasonal patterns, weather conditions, and ongoing trade dynamics with Mexico.
Recent Price Trends
Current Market Position
The April 2025 tomato price of $1.793 per pound represents:
- -1.4% monthly decline from March 2025 ($1.819)
- -8.6% year-over-year decrease from April 2024 ($1.962)
- -12.5% quarterly decline from January 2025 ($2.050)
Historical Context
Looking at the broader trend, tomato prices have shown significant volatility:
- Peak pricing: February 2025 reached $2.132, the highest in recent years
- Seasonal pattern: Prices typically decline from winter peaks to spring/summer lows
- Long-term trend: Current prices remain above the 2021-2022 baseline levels
Key External Factors Affecting Prices
Trade Policy Developments
A 2019 U.S.-Mexico agreement to suspend investigations on tomato dumping is ending July 14, 2025, rendering market prices uncertain. Since Mexico provides 70% of tomatoes in the U.S.' market cheaply, the termination could raise prices this summer. This policy change represents a significant risk factor for future price stability.
Weather and Production Conditions
During a recent winter tomato season characterized by poor weather, very limited shipments, and record pricing of $40-plus per carton. In the past 3 months, there has been a significant and sustained SHORTAGE of tomatoes in the market, resulting in some of the highest prices recorded for tomatoes on the shelf if the consumer could even find them.
Mexican Competition Impact
While NAFTA eliminated trade barriers and encouraged year-round imports from Mexico, Mexican government support and lower cost of production make Mexican tomatoes more competitive in the global market than US tomatoes. Increasing imports coupled with production issues at home such as labor shortages and the phase-out of methyl bromide have significantly affected the market share and profitability of US growers.
Market Structure and Consumption
Production Landscape
Fresh-market tomatoes are produced in every state, with commercial-scale production in about 20 States. The emergence of greenhouse tomato production has begun to change the shape of the U.S. fresh-market tomato industry.
Consumer Demand
Tomatoes are the second most consumed vegetable in the U.S, behind potatoes. In 2023, fresh market and processed consumption was 20.3 pounds and 73.3 pounds per capita, respectively.
Price Outlook and Risk Factors
Immediate Concerns
Trade Agreement Expiration: The expiring Tomato Suspension Agreement [TSA] goes back to 1996, with five renewals since then until 2019. Since then, President Trump's upcoming tariff seems to have found a monetary solution to the journal's findings.
Seasonal Patterns: Tomato prices in the United States tend to peak in winter due to lower domestic supply and higher import costs. Summer sees the lowest prices, especially July and August, thanks to abundant local harvests.
Long-term Trends
The import price per kilogram of tomatoes into the US over the last five years has been relatively stable. The most recent data shows that the price of tomatoes imported into the US in 2022 was $1.17. This is the highest price in the last five years.
Conclusion
The tomato market in April 2025 reflects a complex interplay of seasonal dynamics, trade policy uncertainties, and production challenges. While current prices have declined from winter peaks, the upcoming expiration of the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement in July 2025 poses significant upside risk to prices. The market continues to be heavily influenced by Mexican imports, weather conditions, and evolving production technologies, particularly greenhouse cultivation. Stakeholders should monitor trade policy developments and seasonal production patterns closely as key price drivers in the coming months.