Tomatoes Price Analysis - May 2025

Summary

Key Findings:

• Current tomato price in May 2025: $1.705 per pound
• Significant price decline: 4.9% month-over-month, 16.0% over 6 months, and 8.3% year-over-year
• Seasonal pattern: Prices typically decline from winter peaks to spring/summer lows
• External pressures: Weather disruptions, reduced California production, and increased Mexican imports affecting market dynamics

Current Price Trends

Recent Performance

The latest BLS data shows tomato prices at $1.705 per pound in May 2025, representing a substantial decline across multiple timeframes:

• 1-month change: -4.9% (-$0.088)
• 3-month change: -7.7% (-$0.143)
• 6-month change: -16.0% (-$0.325)
• 12-month change: -8.3% (-$0.154)

Historical Context

Looking at the historical data, tomato prices peaked in February 2025 at $2.132 per pound and have been declining steadily since. This follows a typical seasonal pattern where prices are highest during winter months and decline through spring and summer as domestic production increases.

The current price of $1.705 represents the lowest level since June 2024 ($1.843), indicating a return to more typical seasonal pricing patterns.

Key Factors Influencing Prices

Weather and Production Challenges

Weather conditions have significantly impacted tomato production, with mild spring temperatures benefiting early planting but extreme summer heat negatively affecting yields. California's forecasted production for processing tomatoes was 11.3 million tons in 2024, representing a 12% decrease from the previous year, with planted acreage down 11% to 226,000 acres.

Weather-related disruptions remain a key risk, with persistent droughts in Southern Europe and California leading to yield reductions, while excessive rainfall in Northern Italy and Spain has delayed planting schedules.

Global Production Outlook

The World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC) has reduced its world production estimate for 2025 to 39.6 million tonnes, 6.2 million tonnes lower than 2024 final production (-13.6%), primarily due to adjustments in China's forecast.

Import Competition

Mexican producers maintain competitive advantages through lower labor costs and favorable government policies, leading to consistent increases in Mexican production and imports to the US market. In 2024, Moroccan tomato exports to the EU surged by 19%, increasing competitive pressure on Spanish and Dutch producers.

Market Dynamics

Seasonal Patterns

The data reveals clear seasonal pricing patterns:

• Winter peaks: Prices typically reach annual highs in January-February
• Spring decline: Steady price decreases from March through May
• Summer lows: Historically lowest prices occur during peak domestic harvest season

Consumer Trends

In the fresh tomato segment, consumption of cherry and grape tomatoes continues to rise, with a 12% increase observed across both the EU and the U.S., driven by consumer trends favoring healthy snacks and convenient salad ingredients.

Regional Price Variations

In the United States, standard loose tomatoes command some of the highest prices globally, ranging from €4.35 to €5.30 per kilogram, reflecting higher labor, transportation, and retail overheads, as well as a greater share of imports in the off-season.

Future Outlook

Production Forecasts

Tomato wholesale prices in 2025 are expected to remain competitive due to advancements in farming techniques and more efficient distribution channels, with farmers adapting to shifting climate patterns potentially leading to improved price stability.

Risk Factors

• Weather volatility: Continued climate-related production disruptions
• Import competition: Sustained pressure from Mexican and other international suppliers
• Labor shortages: Ongoing challenges in domestic production

Conclusion

The May 2025 tomato price of $1.705 per pound reflects a significant seasonal correction from winter highs, driven by typical supply-demand dynamics as domestic production increases. However, underlying structural challenges including reduced California production capacity, weather-related risks, and competitive pressure from imports suggest continued market volatility. The 16% decline over six months indicates a substantial market adjustment, bringing prices closer to historical seasonal norms while highlighting the industry's ongoing adaptation to changing production and trade dynamics.