Unleaded Regular Gas Price Analysis - November 2025
Summary
Key Findings: Gas prices in November 2025 reached $3.228 per gallon, showing a modest decline of 0.3% from October but marking a 1.5% increase year-over-year. The market is experiencing significant downward pressure from oversupply conditions, with prices expected to fall below $3.00 per gallon in 2026.
- Current Price: $3.228 per gallon (November 2025)
- Monthly Change: -0.3% (-$0.011)
- Annual Change: +1.5% (+$0.047)
- Market Outlook: Bearish with continued price declines expected
Recent Price Trends
Short-Term Movement (1-6 Months)
The November 2025 price of $3.228 represents a continuation of the gradual decline that began in September 2025. Key trends include:
- October to November: Slight decrease of 0.3% (-$0.011)
- 3-Month Trend: Down 2.0% (-$0.067) since August
- 6-Month Trend: Down 2.4% (-$0.078) since May
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Despite recent declines, prices remain 1.5% higher than November 2024 ($3.181), though this represents a significant moderation from the dramatic price swings seen in previous years.
Current Market Conditions
Oil Market Fundamentals
Global oil inventories are continuing to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude oil forecast to fall to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.73% to close at $55.27 per barrel, the lowest since February 2021, while Brent lost 2.71% to settle at $58.92.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The market is experiencing a significant supply surplus:
- Global oil supply remains on track to rise by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026, while world oil demand is forecast to increase by only 830 kb/d this year and 860 kb/d in 2026
- Observed global oil stocks rose by 424 mb from January through November, with crude oil on water surging by 213 mb since end-August
Key External Factors
Geopolitical Developments
Several geopolitical factors are influencing current pricing:
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Investors are pricing in the possibility of lower geopolitical risk as President Donald Trump pressures Ukraine to accept a peace agreement with Russia, with sanctions likely to be lifted relatively quickly in the event of an agreement
- Russian Oil Sanctions: Russia's total oil exports fell by roughly 400 kb/d in November to 6.9 mb/d as buyers assessed implications of more stringent sanctions, causing Urals prices to plunge by $8.2/bbl to $43.52/bbl
Economic Indicators
U.S. job growth totaled 64,000 in November but declined by 105,000 in October, with unemployment hitting a four-year high of 4.6%, suggesting potential economic weakness that could reduce fuel demand.
OPEC+ Production Policy
OPEC+ began increasing production in April 2025 and has consistently increased production targets through 2026, though the group announced plans to pause any further production increases through March 2026.
Regional Price Variations
Based on current market data:
| Region | Price Range | Notable Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Most Expensive | $4.33-$4.43 | Hawaii, California leading |
| Least Expensive | $2.34-$2.52 | Oklahoma, Arkansas, Southern states |
| National Average | $3.228 | November 2025 BLS data |
The nation's most expensive markets are Hawaii ($4.43) and California ($4.33), while the least expensive are Oklahoma ($2.34) and Arkansas ($2.46).
Market Outlook
2026 Projections
The outlook for gasoline prices remains bearish:
- EIA expects gasoline prices to fall below $3.00 per gallon on average in 2026, down 10% from 2024
- GasBuddy forecasts gas prices to average just $2.97 a gallon nationally in 2026, which would be the first annual average below $3 since 2020
Consumer Impact
Americans are expected to spend $11 billion less at the gas pump than they did in 2025, translating to an average household spending of $2,083 on gas for the year, down from $2,716 in 2022.
Risk Factors
Supply Disruption Risks
- Venezuelan Sanctions: The U.S. blockade of crude carriers from Venezuela is slowing oil flow, with oil prices rebounding from multi-year lows following U.S. Coast Guard seizure of oil tankers
- Refinery Capacity: Depleted product stocks and unscheduled refinery outages lifted European and Asian refining margins to two-year highs
Demand Factors
U.S. demand for gasoline has increased as American travel rises due to an improving economy, increased tourism, and continued use of remote/hybrid work models giving people more flexibility for road trips.
Conclusion
November 2025 gasoline prices reflect a market in transition, with abundant supply conditions driving prices lower despite modest year-over-year increases. The combination of rising global oil inventories, potential geopolitical de-escalation, and economic uncertainty suggests continued downward pressure on prices through 2026. Consumers can expect significant relief at the pump, with forecasts pointing to the lowest annual average prices since the COVID-19 pandemic.